Yeah I know it’s been growing exponentially over the last few years and the last prediction was higher than this and it blew through that one but I really think this is the absolute plateau. Maybe like 1MW more but that’s it …
TBF we’re talking about the industry that tricked the entire globe into thinking leaded gasoline was safe. Falsified data. Hired scientists to lie in congress. All while fully knowing the dangers.
In 1956, the Soviet Union banned leaded gasoline in large cities, such as Moscow, Leningrad, Baku, Odessa, Kiev and tourist areas of the Caucasus and Crimea
Well, at least the earlier ones resembled a logistic curve, which is how you would model something like this, like population there is some ceiling that will slow things down, whatever the ceiling might be. So the others at least shaped their model correctly, with an incorrect ceiling.
The last one is just a weird assumption that a flat ceiling has been hit with zero slowdown, which would demand a pretty particular explanation as to why they think such a weird shape would happen.
Who tf made that last prediction?
Yeah I know it’s been growing exponentially over the last few years and the last prediction was higher than this and it blew through that one but I really think this is the absolute plateau. Maybe like 1MW more but that’s it …
All the displayed predictions are equally stupid and just look like gas and fuel lobby copium.
TBF we’re talking about the industry that tricked the entire globe into thinking leaded gasoline was safe. Falsified data. Hired scientists to lie in congress. All while fully knowing the dangers.
This is much more sinister than copium.
With one exception:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/11964653_Soviet_and_Post-Soviet_Environmental_Management_Lessons_from_a_Case_Study_on_Lead_Pollution
Well, at least the earlier ones resembled a logistic curve, which is how you would model something like this, like population there is some ceiling that will slow things down, whatever the ceiling might be. So the others at least shaped their model correctly, with an incorrect ceiling.
The last one is just a weird assumption that a flat ceiling has been hit with zero slowdown, which would demand a pretty particular explanation as to why they think such a weird shape would happen.