Today is Tuesday, 10/20 and the general US Elections are in TWO WEEKS.
As it stands right now, the current Senate composition is:
47 - Democrats
51 - Republicans
2 - Independents
Looking at the numbers, we COULD see a huge shift in the Senate this year, best case scenario would be:
52 - Democrats
45 - Republicans
3 - Independents
1ST DEMOCRATIC FLIP - NC
2ND DEMOCRATIC FLIP - SC
3RD DEMOCRATIC FLIP - TX
4TH DEMOCRATIC FLIP - OH
5TH DEMOCRATIC FLIP - KS
6TH DEMOCRATIC FLIP - IA
7TH DEMOCRATIC FLIP - ME
El-Sayed wins MI, hold, not a flip!
Alaska - 74% Reporting - D+0.29 (637 votes!)
(Dan Sullivan^1 47.88%
Dan Sullivan^2 1.68%)
Mississippi - 96% Reporting - D+0.18 (1,724 votes!)
Chart Follows:
| State | Current | Occupant | Status | D Cand | R Cand | Polling 10/18 | Outcome | Polling Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | Democratic | Hickenlooper | Safe D | John Hickelooper | Mark Baisley | Called D | ||
| Delaware | Democratic | Coons | Safe D | Chris Coons | Michael Katz | Called D | ||
| Georgia | Democratic | Ossoff | Safe D | Jon Ossoff | Mike Collins | Called D | ||
| Illnois | Democratic | Durbin | Safe D | Juliana Stratton | Don Tracy | Called D | ||
| Massachusetts | Democratic | Markey | Safe D | Ed Markey | John Deaton | Called D | ||
| New Hampshire | Democratic | Shaheen | Safe D | Chris Pappas | John E. Sununu | Called D | ||
| New Jersey | Democratic | Booker | Safe D | Cory Booker | Justin Murphy | Called D | ||
| New Mexico | Democratic | Luja | Safe D | Ben Ray Luján | Larry Marker | Called D | ||
| Oregon | Democratic | Merkley | Safe D | Jeff Merkley | David Brock Smith | Called D | ||
| Rhode Island | Democratic | Reed | Safe D | Jack Reed | Raymond McKay | Called D | ||
| Virginia | Democratic | Warner | Safe D | Mark Warner | Bert Mizusawa | Called D | ||
| Minnesota | Democratic | Smith | D | Peggy Flanagan | Michele Tafoya | Called D | ||
| North Carolina | Republican | Tillis | D | Roy Cooper | Michael Whatley | D FLIP | Possible D Flip | D Momentum since 6/1 |
| Alabama | Republican | Tuberville | Safe R | Everett Wess | Barry Moore | Called R | ||
| Arkansas | Republican | Cotton | Safe R | Hallie Shoffner | Tom Cotton | Called R | ||
| Florida | Republican | Moody | Safe R | Angie Nixon | Ashley Moody | Called R | ||
| Idaho | Republican | Risch | Safe R | Withdrawn | Jim Risch | Called R | ||
| Kentucky | Republican | McConnell | Safe R | Charles Booker | Andy Barr | Called R | ||
| Louisiana | Republican | Cassidy | Safe R | Jamie Davis | Julia Letlow | Called R | ||
| Mississippi | Republican | Hyde-Smith | Safe R | Cindy Hyde-Smith | Scott Colom | R+9 | ||
| Montana | Republican | Daines | Safe R | Alani Bankhead | Kurt Alme | Called R | ||
| Nebraska | Republican | Ricketts | Safe R | Dan Osborn (I) | Pete Ricketts | Called R | R Momentum since 10/1 | |
| Oklahoma | Republican | Armstrong | Safe R | N’Kiyla Thomas | Kevin Hern | Called R | ||
| South Dakota | Republican | Rounds | Safe R | Brian Bengs | Mike Rounds | Called R | ||
| Tennessee | Republican | Hagerty | Safe R | Marquita Bradshaw | Bill Hagerty | Called R | ||
| West Virginia | Republican | Capito | Safe R | Rachel Fetty Anderson | Shelley Moore Capito | Called R | ||
| Wyoming | Republican | Lummis | Safe R | James Byrd | Harriet Hageman | Called R | ||
| South Carolina | Republican | Graham | R | Annie Andrews | Darline Graham | D FLIP | R Momentum since 8/29 | |
| Alaska | Republican | Sullivan | Tossup | Mary Peltola | Dan Sullivan | D+3 | Possible D Flip | D Momentum since 8/4 |
| Iowa | Republican | Ernst | Tossup | Josh Turek | Ashley Hinson | D FLIP | Possible D Flip | D Momentum since 9/10 |
| Kansas | Republican | Marshall | Tossup | Adam Hamilton | Roger Marshall | D FLIP | Possible D Flip | D Momentum since 10/1 |
| Maine | Republican | Collins | Tossup | Troy Jackson | Susan Collins | COLLINS CONCEDES | Possible D Flip | D Momentum since 7/6 |
| Michigan | Democratic | Peters | Tossup | Abdul El-Sayed | Mike Rogers | Called D | Possible R Flip | D Momentum since 8/17 |
| Ohio | Republican | Husted | Tossup | Sherrod Brown | Jon Husted | D FLIP | Possible D Flip | D Momentum since 6/2 |
| Texas | Republican | Cornyn | Tossup | James Talarico | Ken Paxton | D FLIP | Possible D Flip | D Momentum since 6/1 |
Until Dems start running on a platform more radical than “We’re not Trump” any landslide is all for naught and we’ll just be in the same spot two years from now.
Soo… You’d rather Trump keeps unchecked power then?
I’m not the poster but have similar reticence to thinking a blue wave will fix things. It’s orders of magnitudes better if Trump doesnt have the stamp of of approval and I hope for a monumental blue wave. But I don’t much faith in the DNC as an organization to do much more than play defense, which again is much better, but could also easily lead to more frustration that drives people back to the GOP in 28 without meaningful progress on key issues that desperately need addressing
Best case scenario:
Democrats shitcan the filibuster, pass a fuckton of legislation in the next 2 years, let Trump veto all of it, and in 28 run on “Here’s what could have been without Republicans.”
Also prevent Ted Cruz from becoming a supreme court justice.
Trump could insist on pushing him through before January while they still have control, just need Alito or Thomas (or both) to step down.
That is exactly the kind of thing they would try to pull, isn’t it.
Yup!
