The war in Iran has put 2026 on track for a dip in annual fossil-fuel carbon emissions

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/54245880

The U.S. war with Iran has raised fossil fuel prices so much that the resulting drop in oil demand has put the world on track to see a rare dip in carbon emissions from these sources in 2026.

Between 2019 and 2025, carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels grew by about 0.8 percent annually, according to a new study published in Nature Climate Change. But 2026 is set to buck that trend: high oil prices, as well as the continued rise of green technology—solar power, wind and electric cars—will cause a “short-term” 0.4 percent drop, according to the study.

“The high petrol prices following the war in Iran are reducing oil use and keeping emissions low,” says the study’s lead author Corinne Le Quéré, a professor of climate change science at the University of East Anglia in England. “But that’s not the whole story: The expansion of renewable energy has progressed a lot in recent years, led by China. And [along with electric vehicles], this is offsetting two thirds of the growing demand for energy.”

With all sources of carbon considered, including deforestation, total global CO2 emissions are set to continue increasing.

  • bss03@infosec.pubEnglish
    37·
    14 hours ago

    This is why a carbon tax on fuel would help, and why ending fossil fuel subsidies would also help. Even both isn’t the end of government action, but they would both be good way to incentivize using alternatives.

    • Aceticon@lemmy.dbzer0.comEnglish
      6·
      6 hours ago

      The purpose of fuel taxes in Europe is essentially that, though more broadly for ICE car pollution rather than just CO2 emissions.

      • bss03@infosec.pubEnglish
        3·
        4 hours ago

        While I don’t know how it gets allocated (probably all into the general fund and then out to military contractors), U.S. fuel also has existing taxes that are supposed to go toward road maintenance. At least that’s the justification my state of Arkansas gives for charging me extra fees to register my Volt, which they treat as an EV: it doesn’t use (as much) fuel, but it does require (just as) maintained roadways.

        • AA5B@lemmy.worldEnglish
          1·
          36 minutes ago

          Technically true but I stopped buying that line decades ago

          • if true, why has it been frozen for decades? Gas taxes long since stopped being anywhere near enough. We’re paying for road maintenance out of general taxes. It’s not valid to claim road users pay for themselves
          • there’s no world where incentivizing less efficient vehicles is good for anything beyond immediate profits

          Gasoline taxes are like coal, failing to achieve its goals in a decades long slide to meaninglessness. We long since have needed to replace gas taxes for funding road maintenance

          If the extra taxes on your volt were justified, they are justified for all personal vehicles, fairly. Let the gas taxes go toward reducing the industry’s impact on the environment and society